The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said its 2.2 million barrels per day expectations for economic growth in 2024 is expected to play a defining role in shaping global demand and supply in the oil market.
OPEC stated this in its monthly report for December, a copy of which was obtained by the Punch Online on Thursday.
The latest report noted, “Looking ahead to 2024, global oil demand is forecast to rise by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y. OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, predominantly in OECD Americas, with other regions also showing some growth. In the non-OECD, a 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, increase is projected, with China and the Middle East leading the way, supported by Other Asia and India.”
This forecast centres on sustained economic and petrochemical activity across major consumer nations,
which fosters demand for transportation fuels and distillates in 2024.
On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth is forecasted at 1.8 mb/d in 2023. Notably, the US is expected
to account for around 70% of this expansion, with a, y-o-y, liquids production increase of 1.3 mb/d.
Other key contributors to this growth include Brazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, Mexico and China. As
for 2024, non-OPEC supply is forecast to expand, y-o-y, by 1.4 mb/d. Growth drivers include US tight oil
output, offshore start-ups in Latin America and the North Sea, and the expansion of oil sands projects in
Canada”.
OPEC stressed that the economic growth seen in the first three quarters this year in most key economies had been better than expected.
“With this, the global economic forecast for 2023 is expected at 2.9 per cent. As this robust economic growth is expected to extend into 2024, the global economic growth is forecasted at 2.6 per cent for the year 2024.
In OECD economies, the robust growth observed in the US during 1H23 and 3Q23 is expected to moderate slightly, with a steady trajectory anticipated in 4Q23 and throughout 2024. The Eurozone that witnessed lower-than-anticipated growth up to 3Q23 is expected to see a slight pickup in 4Q23 and in 2024.
Japan’s economic growth exceeded its potential in 1H23, with a projected normalization in 2H23 and throughout 2024. In the non-OECD group, India, Brazil and Russia exhibited robust economic growth surpassing expectations up to 3Q23, with this trend expected to persist in 4Q23 and throughout 2024”.
END.