KPMG Nigeria has disclosed that the six per cent average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projected by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is unrealistic.

KPMG noted that the target may prove challenging to achieve.

KPMG, a global network of professional firms providing audit, tax and advisory services, in a flashnote titled ‘Prospect for Attaining 6% Average Growth Rate in 4 years’, and released on Friday, said the target “might be difficult to attain” within the timeframe set by the Ahmed Tinubu-led administration.

The president, during his inauguration speech, had set a target to increase the GDP growth rate of the country by 6% on average in the next 4 years through budgetary reforms aimed at stimulating the real sector of the economy.

According to KPMG, achieving a real GDP growth rate of 6 percent on average between 2023 and 2026 entails increasing the real GDP from N74.6 trillion in 2022 to N92.5 trillion in 2026, an increase of N17 trillion in just 4 years.

“For example, the consensus analysts is a GDP growth in 2023 of between 2.7-3.2%. Thus, if we assume a GDP growth of 3% in the first year, the economy will then have to grow by an average of 7% for the subsequent 3 years and moving growth
from a forecasted 3% in 2023 to at least 7% in 2024 and afterwards seems overly ambitious,” the firm said.

“While we expect stronger year on year growth over the next few years, we are of the opinion that there is very limited space to attain a 6% average real growth rate in 4 years or an increase in real GDP by N17trillion,” KPMG Nigeria said.

“We are of the opinion that an average GDP growth rate of between 4-4.5% at the best is more feasible in the next 4 years.

“Even this will require the country to get its policies right and keep consistent faith with macroeconomic reforms,” it added.

“While we expect stronger year-on-year growth over the next few years, we are of the opinion that there is very limited space to attain a 6% average real growth rate in 4 years or an increase in real GDP by N17 trillion.

“We are of the opinion that an average GDP growth rate of between 4-4.5% at the best is more feasible in the next 4 years. Even this will require the country to get its policies right and keep consistent faith with macroeconomic reforms,” it concluded.